The potential predictable voting pattern of Nigeria in 2015 elections

The general election is by the corner, with less than four months to elections, one may predict the potential voting patter of Nigeria assuming the two known candidates are to contest under the ruling party and the major opposition party.

Looking back into history and the way Nigerians are inclined to a lot of factor; religious, tribal and regional been the most pronounced. From the first republic to now the 8th republic, Nigerians have maintained a single voting pattern, the pattern may likely continue and Nigerians are unlikely to change.

From 1959 when election were first held for the House of representative. The Nigerian People’s Party of mainly northern Muslims, which dominated the northern Nigeria emerged after the election as the most powerful party dominating the federal government. Out of 312 seats, the NPC was able to secure 134 seats.

The second largest party was the National convention of Nigerian citizens (NCNC), a powerful party of mainly Igbos – Christian in the southeast, it was also able to secure 89 seat.

The Action Group (AG) was the dominant in the south west, created and owned by the Yarubas, it got the least seat of 73 out of the total 312. From after that election, Nigeria’s voting pattern was fully established. The NPC entered a coalition with the NCNC to form the then federal government.

After declaring a federal system of government in 1963, an election was held in 1965 that was Azikwe emerged as the President. Already in the south west the NNDP was gaining ground. The NPC later move to in cooperate the NNDP into the government. Perhaps the Igbos felt uncomfortable.

On the faithful day of January 15 1966, a group of majors from south eastern origin overthrow the federal government killing mainly northern muslim leaders. That further divide Nigerians and increased the hatred and divisions among Nigerians. he Central Intelligence Agency commented in October 1966 in an CIA Intelligence Memorandum that:

On 29 May 1967, Lt. Col. Emeka Ojukwu, the military governor of the eastern region who emerged as the leader of increasing Igbo secessionist sentiment, declared the independence of the eastern region as the Republic of Biafra on 30 May 1967.[34] The ensuing Nigerian Civil War resulted in an estimated 3.5 million deaths (mostly from starving children) before the war ended with Gowon’s famous

“No victor, no vanquished” speech in 1970. Following the civil war the country turned to the task of economic development. The U.S. intelligence community concluded in November 1970 that “…The Nigerian Civil War ended with relatively little rancor. The Igbos were accepted as fellow citizens in many parts of Nigeria, but not in some areas of former Biafra where they were once dominant.

Iboland is an overpopulated, economically depressed area where massive unemployment is likely to continue for many years. The U.S. analysts said that “…Nigeria is still very much a tribal society…” where local and tribal alliances count more than “national attachment”.

After three. Successive military regimes of Ironsi, Gawon and Murtala – Obasanjo, the federal military government finally decided to return power back to the people. A constituent assembly was elected in 1977 to draft a new constitution, which was published on 21 September 1978, when the ban on political activity was lifted.

In 1979, five political parties competed in a series of elections in which Alhaji Shehu Shagari of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) was elected president. All five parties won representation in the National Assembly. In August 1983, Shagari and the NPN were returned to power in a landslide victory with a majority of seats in the National Assembly and control of 12 state governments.

But the elections were marred by violence and allegations of widespread vote rigging and electoral malfeasance, leading to legal battles over the results. The Shagari government was then ousted, election was not held till after 7 years in 1991. Two parties were then formed. The SDP and the and the NRC. Political activities were then allowed.

Presidential election was then stated for june 12 after postponing it twice. After what could have been Nigeria’s freest election, President Babangida cancelled the election. The self acclaimed winner MKO Abiola was believed to have won the election. Babangida was later forced to resign and a transition was constituted under Shonikan. It lasted for six months before been overthrown by General Abacha. He was suppose to return power to civilians in two years, the NADECO kept the pressure on Abacha till he did without holding elections in 1998.

General Abdussalam took over after Abacha’s death. He kept his promise, In August 1998 Abubakar appointed the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to conduct elections for local government councils, state legislatures and governors, the national assembly, and president. The NEC successfully held elections on 5 December 1998, 9 January 1999, 20 February, and 27 February 1999, respectively. For local elections nine parties were granted provisional registration with three fulfilling the requirements to contest the following elections.

These parties were the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the All People’s Party (APP), and the predominantly Yoruba Alliance for Democracy (AD). Former military head of state Olusegun Obasanjo, freed from prison by Abubakar, ran as a civilian candidate and won the presidential election. The PRC promulgated a new constitution based largely on the suspended 1979 constitution, before the 29 May 1999 inauguration of the new civilian president.

The constitution includes provisions for a bicameral legislature, the National Assembly consisting of a 360-member House of Representatives and a 109- member Senate. Even in 1999 elections, the voting pattern obeys the “1959 Nigerian voting pattern law” there were three major political parties; the ruling PDP which is suppose to be an Igbo party, ANPP as the northern backed party, and CAN of the Yoruba. Though Nigerian have long not observe their civic responsibility of voting. That was since the Shagari re-election.

The election could have been perceived as a northern muslim against a southern christian. But the election went on peacefully, though a lot of malpractices were recorded. Obasanjo was re-elected in 2003 against General Muhammad Buhari of the ANPP. In 2007, the voting pattern was some how disturbed. Because both the two candidates were Northern Muslims from the same state. Like the election before it(that of 2003), it was mired with a lot of irregularities.

Following the presidential election, groups monitoring the election gave it a dismal assessment. Chief European Union observer Max van den Berg reported that the handling of the polls had “fallen far short” of basic international standards, and that “the process cannot be considered to be credible.” A spokesman for the United States Department of State said it was “deeply troubled” by election polls, calling them “flawed”, and said it hoped the political parties would resolve any differences over the election through peaceful, constitutional means. Nigerians have re casted their minds to continuously keep on obeying the 1959 voting pattern.

In. 2011, the divisions and inclination of Nigerians further widened in suc a way that over 1000 people perish to post election violence in 2011. Just like in 2003, the 2011 election was between a christian southerner of the PDP and a northern muslims candidate of the CPC. The ruling PDP candidate scored over 22 million votes,over 58 percent enough to form a government without a re-run election. while the CPC candidate scored about 35 percent. Other like ACN and ANPP scored the rest of the votes.

The 2015 is by the corner. The 1959 voting pattern is still going to be respected come 2015. The up coming election is going to be the most oriented, sophisticated and inclined election in the history of Nigeria. The ruling PDP has already endorsed President Jonathan. Jonathan a southern Christian is definitely going to contest against a muslim northerner.

The merger of CAN from the southwest and CPC from the north has unified the northern and southern muslims under a single platform. The Presidential primaries nor the consensus candidate has been adopted by the APC. Whether General Buhari, Atiku or even Gov. Kwankwaso, most likely the APC is going to field a muslim from northern Nigeria. If it is General Buhari, then he may give the ruling party a very huge challenge. Because Buhari is the most experienced opposition politician among the aspirants.

Been a former head of state, running for the office of President three times, General Buhari is having the greatest appeal, the general mau clinch the Presidency provided the old ACN guards are willing to help the party to succeed, provided the interval conflict within the party is controlled. Atiku is also a good product, rich and willing to do many things to win election. Unlike Buhari, Atiku is seen as a detribalized Nigerian with some higher appeal than Buhari in the south.

Religion, regional, tribal and competence inclination are going to play in who will emerge victorious. President Jonathan has the incumbency power, that is an additional benefit for him. People from middle belt may remain divisive. Even though they are religiously inclined to southern Nigeria, bu their long future remain in northern Nigeria. The north east is already embattled, the people believed that the federal government is not doing enough, certainly they won’t vote for it.

The south west are now part of the APC, their loyalty cannot be assured, but they seems committed this time. North west is for the APC who ever the party is going to field. The south east belongs to the PDP for what may be the reasons. In the south south, APC is having Edo and Amechi, the PDP is not going to have it all.

How ever the election goes, certainly the vanquished region will certainly reject the election, already a former militant in the Niger delta has threaten Nigeria with blood shade if his kinsman loss the election. Nigerians should unite and ensure free and fair election. Good leadership remain the answer to Nigeria’s woes.

Comrade Abdulbaqi Aliyu Jari

Katsina state of Nigeria

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The potential predictable voting pattern of Nigeria in 2015 elections