Why APC lost Rivers

President Muhammadu Buhari is conscious he has approximately three years left in office. Even more, he is aware he has so far not quite justified his election or the abundant goodwill and trust reposed in him by those who voted him last year. Addressing the National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting of the All Progressives Congress (APC) last Thursday in Abuja, he promised real and substantial improvement in the circumstances and welfare of his people. He did not quite give a speech, for apparently, he was always hobbled by the gravity of formal occasions. What he gave instead were remarks that came across quite well, and in which he admitted his failings where he needed to, refused to excuse his mistakes, and promised to meet his longsuffering compatriots at their points of need on account of the more than three million naira the Treasury Single Account (TSA) had enabled his government to save.

Nyesom Wike and Romiti Amaechi

Before last week’s APC NEC meeting, President Buhari had given scores of formal and boring speeches, including his inauguration address,  and a couple of wisecracks, some of them, especially those given during his foreign trips, misspoken. In none of those speeches and brief remarks did he come across as a politician or conciliator. In one breath, he would speak candidly, forcefully and sometimes unreflectively of how fortune and fate in equal measure dealt him a cruel hand regarding the limiting effects of his age and the falling price of crude oil. And sometimes exhilarated, he would speak wistfully from the hangover of his regimented background, attempting to juxtapose his nostalgic past with what he feels is his unresponsive and frustrating present. On Thursday, however, he spoke as a politician and conciliator. If he can act his newfound speech and press the spirit of his rhetoric, who knows, he may yet save his presidency.

But whatever he does from now on cannot save his party from defeat and humiliation in Rivers State, and indeed in most other Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) states. He will in fact struggle to sustain his party’s hold on some controversial and borderline APC states, many of which he has neither shown commitment to nor displayed affection for. The rerun elections in Rivers were enveloped in violence, with many murdered before, during and after the polls. A party’s defeat may admittedly sometimes be explained in terms of who is the more disposed to violence between two leading political gladiators in any election. But in the case of Rivers, neither former governor Rotimi Amaechi, who is now Minister of Transport, nor APC chairman, Odigie Oyegun, conducted himself in such a manner as to engender victory for their party. However, ultimately, the responsibility for the party’s defeat in that state lies with the party leader, President Buhari.

This column indicated immediately after the Supreme Court validated Nyesom Wike’s election as governor that the APC would have a tough job winning a substantial part of the rerun polls. Except perhaps to the APC, the reasons were clear. Mr. Amaechi may be popular in the state, and may even have governed well, but Riverians are not so stupid as not to recognise that voting for APC lawmakers would prolong and entrench the stalemate in the state and predispose it to more violence. In the opinion of this column, Mr. Wike had not always acted with the maturity and brilliance expected of a governor, but having been installed as governor, it was unlikely that the structure of Nigeria’s unitary and patronage-ridden economy would lead the state’s electorate to repudiate him. They longed for peace, but would not mind submitting to the more practical and debilitating purveyor of evil among their political leaders.

In addition, rather than speak loftily, and perhaps dreamily, of the Rivers State of their vision, the APC chairman and other party officials had spoken deprecatingly and materialistically of the state as that oil-rich state, almost akin to how the president himself later described the Niger Delta as a lucrative part of Nigeria. Together with Mr. Amaechi’s impetuousness and Mr. Oyegun’s materialistic view of politics, it was impossible to imagine that Riverians would be enamoured of the APC, or feel indebted to its misbegotten principles and values. The president should do all in his power to bring to justice all those who fomented violence in Rivers State, including those who inspired it, but he should do nothing to interfere with the composition and inauguration of the state legislature. The civilised world may have reservations about how Mr. Wike conducted himself before and during the polls, but it is not enough to halt or abridge any of the processes leading to the inauguration of the House of Assembly if a quorum is formed.

As crucial to APC’s defeat in Rivers as the widespread violence in the state was, and not ignoring the orientation and conduct of Messrs Oyegun and Amaechi, probably the most important other reason for the debacle is the president’s inattentiveness to politics, in substance and ornamentation. However, it seems the president may just be starting to appreciate politics, if his remarks at last Thursday’s APC NEC meeting in Abuja is anything to go by. He had misrepresented politics when he suggested in his inauguration address that he belonged to everybody and to nobody. He had at the time unbelievably given the impression he became president by dint of his own hard work, appeal and merit, and would therefore not be beholden to anybody. He couldn’t be more wrong. If it were left to him and merit alone, he would have retired from politics long before 2015.

Not only does the president in fact belong to his party and individuals who broke their backs to ensure his victory, he needs them to sustain himself in office, entrench and protect his legacy, and run for a second term, if he desires one. But with a divided party and an apparently disenchanted following, it is not surprising that his party has fared badly in most of the elections that have taken place under his watch. It could get much worse, and not simply because of violence or the Independent National Electoral Commission’s inability to get its act together. The reasons are nuanced. First, since he assumed office, President Buhari has done precious little to instill confidence in the nations laws, constitution and processes. He has dithered badly on the rule of law in his anti-corruption campaign, thereby giving the opposition the impression he had no regard for due process and seemingly suggesting that the fittest could always take the trophy regardless of what the law says. In addition, he has behaved awkwardly and intimidatingly to the judiciary, again convincing Mr. Wike and others like him that whatever they needed should be taken by force, perhaps extrajudicially and remorselessly.

Second, by repudiating and even denouncing the politics of accommodation and consensus, the president virtually told indigenes of the South-South and Southeast geopolitical zones that they should look elsewhere for affiliation and attention. He would not offer them sop on the scale he would give his avid supporters meat and delicacies, he had whined incredibly and paradoxically as a victor. Then he worsened an already bad situation by his unsympathetic approach to the Biafra idea vis-a-vis other rebellious groups in the North, and gave ministerial portfolios considered of little influence to the region. The implication is that with two swift blows to the head, the two regions swore to close ranks and shut down their politics against the APC. The president needed to woo his ‘enemies’; instead he harangued them. Thus APC lost Bayelsa and the rerun polls in Rivers and Akwa Ibom, and had any other poll been called for anywhere else in the two geopolitical zones, the party would have lost woefully. In the circumstance, the best the president can do leading his troops to the next polls is to mitigate the scale of his party’s defeat, for that defeat will surely come. The presidnt must also rue how the momentum the APC carried into the 2015 polls came barely a few months later to a wrenching and agonising stop.

Third, in order to gain in stature and earn respect in hostile states, the president needed to act subliminally as a statesman in almost everything, from elections to judicial proceedings and respect for the laws of the land, and from inter-party politics to inter-ethnic relations. Instead, he seems to have foresworn that sublimeness. He should have acted decisively in arresting the political drift towards the unrelenting parochialism authored by his party in the Kogi governorship election; instead he has merely regretted the inconclusiveness of the poll, thereby giving the impression to the cognoscenti that he has no deep and abiding understanding of the principles of justice and equity. The president’s discomfort with the tenets of justice has emboldened politicians like Mr. Wike and Ekiti State governor, Ayo Fayose, to embrace brinkmanship and flirt with dangerous and cataclysmic propositions. Messrs Wike and Fayose lack principles and political morality, but they will continue to dismiss President Buhari’s efforts as sanctimoniousness, and stiffen their increasingly contagious opposition to his ideas and policies.

Fourth, it was necessary for the president to travel to Rivers before the polls, meet with the gladiators, admonish them on peace and impactful politicking, address a town hall meeting on the values and virtues that must underpin Nigerian politics, engage traditional rulers and the youths, and encourage law enforcement agents to be fair and impartial. Instead, he said nothing to a state like Rivers so unused to the amenities of elections, and mobilised no one who could help to prod the state in the right direction. He is right to vow retribution against those who killed and maimed in the Rivers rerun, but the damage is already done, both to the state as a whole, and to the APC’s image in particular.

Fifth, unfortunately for President Buhari, he has not articulated any lofty idea of the economy, politics, and society. He has spent about one year in office, but it is doubtful whether he has any convert to any great cause, for a convert must embrace an idea or a man of ideas. Though his APC NEC remarks are full of sensible ideas, he nonetheless seems to think once the economy is revamped his job is done. Both the president and his party must begin to come to terms with a different and more sublime reality. They can lose elections even with a growing economy, defeated Boko Haram, and low crime rate. Worse, like the PDP has shown, APC’s legacies (as a party, and as a president) can be subverted and pulverised if they are unable to enthrone enduring and endearing philosophy of government and society. This was why ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo and his successors were a disaster despite growing economy, and their legacies quickly denuded and bastardised. They did not imbue the nation with an identity and character worthy of remark and attention. If President Buhari wishes to attract the respect and reverence of the country, irrespective of political, ethnic and religious affiliations, he must go beyond reforms to treat the legislature, judiciary and other groups in the society with veneration, in the process carefully calibrating the urgent need to midwife reforms vis-a-vis the constitutional obligation of building and strengthening institutions.

States and their leading politicians will not support President Buhari and the APC just because of who they are. They must first see the ruling party and its leaders as embodying inspiring ideas and principles before offering them the respect and support they covet. That Rivers State is PDP today does not mean it cannot be APC tomorrow. But before Riverians will pitch tent with APC they must see in the president and his party unusual and soaring qualities of depth and character, and of poise and carriage, something and everything beyond the mundane and mechanical. The president must learn to woo his enemies and opponents, nurture and retain his friends, exemplify great ideas and principles, build and sustain institutions, rise above his biases and prejudices, transcend his comfort zone, and situate his country firmly and regally not in the restricted confine of his own limited background but in the difficult, expansive, conflict-ridden and boisterous global context that continues to demean the black man and treat many African nations contemptuously.

If despite their towering statures and achievements great historical personages could lose elections, both President Buhari and the APC must acknowledge that their puny statures, poverty of noble and catalysing ideas, poor appreciation of and relationship with national institutions, and general and dangerous parochialisms, make them exceedingly vulnerable. Rather than blame the judiciary and violence for their electoral reverses, they should help Rivers back on its feet. The fault for the political morass in which Nigeria is immersed at the moment lies with the president and his party. The buck stops on their desks. To return to winning ways, the party and president should rise to the occasion by imbibing the skills and discipline necessary to deal with cantankerous foes like Messrs Fayose and Wike, and obstreperous and combative opposition party leaders like Ali Modu Sheriff.

President Buhari’s remarks at the APC’s NEC meeting last week indicate he may have begun to understand what should be done. If the transformation is real, he owes the amelioration of his stiff and unattractive politics to his critics, not his sycophants. And if the transformation is to endure, he should seek out more critics who will coax him back to nobility and mould him into a statesmanlike stature, a sculpture of him that many, because of his stiffness and intransigence, have long described as an illusion and given up on.

Why APC lost Rivers